Discussion Papers

What will be the political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic? We find that epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25...

An effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is sometimes suggested, will be to reverse the secular trend toward questioning the value of scientific...

We estimate the survival time of nearly 7,000 firms in a dozen of high-income and middle-income countries in a scenario of extreme economic distress...

We exploit the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets and regulatory restrictions on dark trading to investigate how volatility...

We examine loan insurance when lenders can screen at origination, learn loan quality over time, and can sell loans in secondary markets. Loan...

We propose a novel, and simple, Bayesian estimation and model selection procedure for crosssectional asset pricing. Our approach, that allows for both...

Consumption dynamics are hard to measure accurately in the data, yet they are the crucial ingredient of macro-finance asset pricing models. The...

Under the threat of earthquakes, long-term policy makers need tools to optimally decide on the economic trajectories that will maximize the society...

Financial crisis can trigger policy reversals, i.e. they can lead to a process of reregulation of financial markets. Using a recent comprehensive...

We derive the optimal underwriting method and the quantitative IPO pricing rule that this method implies in a market with informational frictions...

Financial networks are an important source of systemic risk, but often only partial network information is available. In this paper, we use data on...

We develop a new methodology to estimate the impact of a financial transaction tax (FTT) on informational efficiency, liquidity and volatility. In our...

Cryptocurrencies promise to replace fiat money with private money whose integrity is underpinned by algorithms, not government guarantees. While the...

European banks have been criticized for holding excessive domestic government debt during economic downturns, which may have intensified the diabolic...

We model asset encumbrance by banks subject to rollover risk and study the consequences for fragility, funding costs, and prudential regulation. A...

Predicting stock market crashes is a focus of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Several prediction models have been developed, mostly...