Discussion Papers

In this study, we propose an implied forward-looking measure for systemic risk that employs the information from put option prices, the Systemic...

The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank...

It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of scientific research and expertise...

What drives actual government policies after financial crises? In this paper, we first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by...

We generalise a stochastic version of the workhorse SIR (Susceptible-Infectious- Removed) epidemiological model to account for spatial dynamics...

Due to their complex features, structured financial products can hurt the average investor. Are certain investors particularly vulnerable? Using...

This paper surveys the state of the art in research in racetrack and lottery markets. Market efficiency and the pricing of various wagers is studied...

We study the transmission of liquidity shocks from one sector of the economy to other sectors in a general equilibrium model with multiple trading...

This paper analyses of how risk is allocated in China’s markets for debt issued by non-financial enterprises. Compared to other major corporate bond...

We investigate the causal impact of financial risk on economic growth, using a panel spanning 150 years and 74 countries. Persistent low risk...

During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation...

We assess the ability of an information aggregation mechanism that operates in the over-the-counter market for financial derivatives to reduce...

What will be the political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic? We find that epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25...

An effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is sometimes suggested, will be to reverse the secular trend toward questioning the value of scientific...

We estimate the survival time of nearly 7,000 firms in a dozen of high-income and middle-income countries in a scenario of extreme economic distress...

We exploit the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets and regulatory restrictions on dark trading to investigate how volatility...