Discussion Papers

We propose an extrapolative model of bubbles to explain the sharp rise in prices and volume observed in historical financial bubbles. The model...

This paper investigates the role of sentiment in the US macro economy from 1920 to 1934. We use 2.4 million digitized articles from the Wall St...

Since 1978 China has developed strongly using a particular form of capitalism which has relied upon close relations between private enterprise and the...

We use data on the universe of credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending...

In this study, we propose an implied forward-looking measure for systemic risk that employs the information from put option prices, the Systemic...

The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank...

It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of scientific research and expertise...

What drives actual government policies after financial crises? In this paper, we first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by...

We generalise a stochastic version of the workhorse SIR (Susceptible-Infectious- Removed) epidemiological model to account for spatial dynamics...

Due to their complex features, structured financial products can hurt the average investor. Are certain investors particularly vulnerable? Using...

This paper surveys the state of the art in research in racetrack and lottery markets. Market efficiency and the pricing of various wagers is studied...

We study the transmission of liquidity shocks from one sector of the economy to other sectors in a general equilibrium model with multiple trading...

This paper analyses of how risk is allocated in China’s markets for debt issued by non-financial enterprises. Compared to other major corporate bond...

We investigate the causal impact of financial risk on economic growth, using a panel spanning 150 years and 74 countries. Persistent low risk...

During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation...

We assess the ability of an information aggregation mechanism that operates in the over-the-counter market for financial derivatives to reduce...