The Role of Sentiment in the Economy: 1920 to 1934
This paper investigates the role of sentiment in the US macro economy from 1920 to 1934. We use 2.4 million digitized articles from the Wall St...
Stake-holder Firms and the Reform of Local Public Finance in China
Since 1978 China has developed strongly using a particular form of capitalism which has relied upon close relations between private enterprise and the...
Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment
We use data on the universe of credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending...
Moral hazard, the fear of the markets, and how central banks responded to Covid-19
While the direct economic consequences of Covid-19 have been significant, the impact on the financial markets has been more nuanced. This column uses...
Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish public trust in science?
Journal of Public Economics, Volume 193, 2021,104343.
Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns
In this study, we propose an implied forward-looking measure for systemic risk that employs the information from put option prices, the Systemic...
Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany
The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank...
Vaccine challenges
Last week brought welcome news about the apparent effectiveness of a potential Covid-19 vaccine. While the challenges of manufacturing and...
Financial policymaking after crises: Public versus private interest
Financial crises invariably lead governments to intervene in one way or another, whether to ease the damage to middle-class voters, to respond to the...
Revenge of the Experts: Will COVID-19 Renew or Diminish Public Trust in Science?
It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of scientific research and expertise...
Domestic Banks As Lightning Rods? Home Bias and Information during the Eurozone Crisis
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 52, 2020,12744.
How we learned to stop counting cases and worry about network effects instead
The commuter hub was key to the spread of COVID-19 in London. The authors of the article estimate it contributed to over 42% of all London cases. When...
Financial Policymaking after Crises: Public vs. Private Interests
What drives actual government policies after financial crises? In this paper, we first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by...
The Spread of COVID-19 in London: Network Effects and Optimal Lockdowns
We generalise a stochastic version of the workhorse SIR (Susceptible-Infectious- Removed) epidemiological model to account for spatial dynamics...
The great demographic reversal and what it means for the economy
The ageing of the population has implications for inequality, productivity and monetary and fiscal policy, write Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan
Exploited by Complexity
Due to their complex features, structured financial products can hurt the average investor. Are certain investors particularly vulnerable? Using...
