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Publications

The Centre has a regular discussion paper series dedicated to academic research, as well as a special paper series focused on policy analysis. In addition, affiliated researchers publish a variety of books, reports and opinion pieces.

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Special Papers

Sell in May and Go Away in the Equity Index Futures Markets, 1993-2019

The period May 1 to the turn of the month of November (-6 trading day of October) has historically produced negligible returns. The rest of the year...

January 2020
SP 17
Constantine Dzhabarov
William T Ziemba

Discussion Papers

Consumption in Asset Returns

Consumption dynamics are hard to measure accurately in the data, yet they are the crucial ingredient of macro-finance asset pricing models. The...

January 2020
DP 92
Svetlana Bryzgalova
Christian Julliard

Opinion Pieces

Banks and government bonds: A love story

European banks have been criticised for holding too much domestic government debt during the recent euro area crisis, intensifying the doom loop...

January 2020
Orkun Saka

Opinion Pieces

Dollars or Pence? Choosing a framework for US-China trade

Given that China is a strategic and economic rival to the US, the Trump administration’s framework for US-China trade makes far more sense than one...

December 2019
Kevin James

Opinion Pieces

Systemic consequences of outsourcing to the cloud

Financial institutions are increasingly outsourcing information technology to the cloud, motivated by efficiency, security, and cost. This column...

December 2019
Jon Danielsson
Robert Macrae

Discussion Papers

Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes?

Under the threat of earthquakes, long-term policy makers need tools to optimally decide on the economic trajectories that will maximize the society...

November 2019
DP 91
Carmen Camacho
Yu Sun

Opinion Pieces

The dissonance of the short and long term

The type of risk we most care about is long-term, what happens over years or decades, but we tend to manage that risk over short periods. This column...

August 2019
Jon Danielsson
Robert Macrae

Opinion Pieces

Central banks and reputation risk

As central banks accumulate ever more job functions, their reputation risk increases. This column offers a cautionary tale from Iceland where, after...

August 2019
Jon Danielsson

Special Papers

Artificial Intelligence and Systemic Risk

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing how the financial system is operated, taking over core functions because of cost savings and...

July 2019
SP 16
Jon Danielsson
Robert Macrae
Andreas Uthemann

Discussion Papers

Financial crises and liberalization: Progress or reversals?

Financial crisis can trigger policy reversals, i.e. they can lead to a process of reregulation of financial markets. Using a recent comprehensive...

July 2019
DP 90
Orkun Saka
Nauro Campos
Paul De Grauwe
Yuemei Ji
Angelo Martelli

Opinion Pieces

Financial crises and the dynamics of financial de-liberalisation

Financial crises play a key role in changing existing policies concerning financial markets and institutions. This column provides new evidence for...

June 2019
Orkun Saka
Nauro Campos
Paul De Grauwe
Yuemei Ji
Angelo Martelli

Discussion Papers

The Efficient IPO Market Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence

We derive the optimal underwriting method and the quantitative IPO pricing rule that this method implies in a market with informational frictions...

June 2019
DP 87
Kevin James
Marcela Valenzuela

Opinion Pieces

The wealth effect: The middle class and the changing politics of banking crises

The accumulation of mass financialised wealth has transformed the politics of banking crises. This column shows that the rising wealth of the middle...

June 2019
Jeffrey M Chwieroth
Andrew Walter

Opinion Pieces

Lending cycles and real outcomes: Costs of political misalignment

Government ownership of banks can help solve credit market failures and stabilise the supply of credit over the business cycle. However, it can also...

May 2019
Çağatay Bircan
Orkun Saka

Discussion Papers

Reconstructing and Stress Testing Credit Networks

Financial networks are an important source of systemic risk, but often only partial network information is available. In this paper, we use data on...

April 2019
DP 89
Amanah Ramadiah
Fabio Caccioli
Daniel Fricke

Books

The Wealth Effect: How the Great Expectations of the Middle Class Have Changed the Politics of Banking Crises

The politics of major banking crises has been transformed since the nineteenth century. Analyzing extensive historical and contemporary evidence...

March 2019
Jeffrey M Chwieroth
Andrew Walter

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Stake-holder Firms and the Reform of Local Public Finance in ...

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