Parimutuel betting markets: racetracks and lotteries revisited
This paper surveys the state of the art in research in racetrack and lottery markets. Market efficiency and the pricing of various wagers is studied...
Sell in May and Go Away in the Equity Index Futures Markets, 1993-2019
The period May 1 to the turn of the month of November (-6 trading day of October) has historically produced negligible returns. The rest of the year...
A Tale of Two Indexes: Predicting Equity Market Downturns in China
Predicting stock market crashes is a focus of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Several prediction models have been developed, mostly...
A Tale of Two Indexes: Predicting Equity Market Downturns in China
Predicting stock market crashes is a focus of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Several prediction models have been developed, mostly...
Does it Pay to Buy the Pot in the Canadian 6/49 Lotto: Implications for Lottery Design
The Canadian 6/49 Lotto©, despite its unusual payout structure, is one of the few government sponsored lotteries that has the potential for a...
A response to Professor Paul A. Samuelson's objectionxs to Kelly capital growth investing
The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Strategy maximizes the expected utility of final wealth with a Bernoulli logarithmic utility function. In 1956...
The Swiss Black Swan Bad Scenario: Is Switzerland Another Casualty of the Eurozone Crisis
Financial disasters to hedge funds, bank trading departments and individual speculative traders and investors seem to always occur because of non...
Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world
We provide a historical perspective focusing on Ziemba's experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD) starting...
Land and Stock Bubbles, Crashes and Exit Strategies in Japan Circa 1990 and in 2013
We study the land and stock markets in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. While the Nikkei stock average in the late 1980s and its -48% crash in 1990 is...
Does the Bond-Stock Earning Yield Differential Model Predict Equity Market Corrections Better Than High P/E Models?
In this paper, we extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main respects. First, we relate explicitly crash prediction measures and...
Optimal Capital Growth with Convex Shortfall Penalties
The optimal capital growth strategy or Kelly strategy, has many desirable properties such as maximizing the asympotic long run growth of capital...
How to lose money in derivatives: examples from hedge funds and bank trading departments
What makes futures hedge funds fail? The common ingredient is over betting and not being diversified in some bad scenarios that can lead to disaster...
When to sell Apple and the NASDAQ? Trading bubbles with a stochastic disorder model
In this paper, the authors apply a continuous time stochastic process model developed by Shiryaev and Zhutlukhin for optimal stopping of random price...
