Synthetic control method (SCM) is generally used for producing counterfactual scenarios in policy evaluations. In the light and urgency of the recent developments regarding the COVID-19 virus and the related human and economic losses, I propose a synthetic forecasting method (SFM) in order to estimate the future path of virus-related outcomes in a country. The method takes advantage of the fact that the virus entered into different countries in slightly different points in time. An application to the cumulative COVID-19-related death toll (as of 13 April 2020) shows that the total numbers may increase by 50% in a week in UK and may double in two weeks in Turkey.
Systemic Risk Centre Special Papers SP 19
Financial Markets Group Special Papers SP 253