Jon Danielsson

Jon Danielsson is one of the two Directors of the Centre. He holds a PhD in economics from Duke University and is currently Associate Professor of Finance at LSE.  His research interests cover systemic risk, financial risk, econometrics, economic theory and financial crisis.

Jon has written two books, Financial Risk Forecasting and Global Financial Systems: Stability and Risk and published a number of articles in leading academic journals.

His main research webpage is , whilst his LSE staff page is here. Jon’s blogs can be found on

Tel: +44 (0)20 7852 3544


Discussion Papers
Apr 2014
DP 11
This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty....
Discussion Papers
Jan 2014
DP 8
Christophe M. Boucher, Jon Danielsson, Patrick S. Kouontchou and Bertrand B. Maillet
The experience from the global financial crisis has raised serious concerns about the accuracy of standard risk measures as tools for the quantification of extreme downward risk. A key reason for this is that risk measures are subject to model risk...
Opinion Pieces
Nov 2013
Basel III is coming into focus. The fundamental logic of the regulatory changes seems sensible, but the devil is in the detail – empirical implementation. This opinion piece discusses a detailed quantitative study, incorporating analytical...
Opinion Pieces
Oct 2013
Jon Danielsson, Ralph S.J. Koijen, Roger Laeven and Enrico Perotti
The European legislation on prudential rules for insurance companies (Solvency II) is set for a final decision. It will be of fundamental importance as it will dictate capital regulation for insurers.This article argues that the final text...
Opinion Pieces
Sep 2013
Central banks frequently lead the macroprudential policy implementation. The hope is that their credibility in conquering inflation might rub off on macroprudential policy. This column argues the opposite. The fuzziness of the macroprudential agenda...
Aug 2013
The book uses economic theory, finance, mathematical modelling, risk theory, and policy to posit a comprehensive, coherent and current economic analysis of the inherent instabilities of the financial system and the design of optimal policy responses...
Opinion Pieces
May 2013
Icelandic voters recently ejected its post-Crisis government – a government that successfully avoided economic collapse when the odds were stacked against it. The new government comprises the same parties that were originally responsible for...
Opinion Pieces
Mar 2013
One aspect of the Cypriot crisis resolution is of particular concern. As authorities fear that anyone with money in Cyprus will want to take it out as soon as banks open, capital controls are being put in place. We are told they will be limited in...
Opinion Pieces
Mar 2013
Cyprus has imposed temporary capital controls. This column sheds light on how temporary and how damaging they are likely to be, based on Iceland’s experience. The longer controls exist, the harder they are to abolish. Icelandic capital...
Opinion Pieces
Mar 2013
Is the fact that different banks have different risk models problematic? Contrary to the Basel Committee and the European Banking Authority, this column argues that heterogeneity is a good thing. It leads to countercyclicality, and thereby reduces...