Jon Danielsson

Jon Danielsson is one of the two Directors of the Centre. He holds a PhD in economics from Duke University and is currently Associate Professor of Finance at LSE.  His research interests cover systemic risk, financial risk, econometrics, economic theory and financial crisis.

Jon has written two books, Financial Risk Forecasting and Global Financial Systems: Stability and Risk and published a number of articles in leading academic journals.

His main research webpage is http://modelsandrisk.org/ , whilst his LSE staff page is here. Jon’s blogs can be found on VoxEU.org.

Tel: +44 (0)20 7852 3544

Publications

Opinion Pieces
Dec 2016
Discretionary macroprudential policies aim to be countercyclical by adjusting risk-taking across the financial cycle. This column argues that the opposite effect may happen in certain cases. Depending on how regulators measure risk and how they...
Opinion Pieces
Dec 2016
Political risk is a major cause of systemic financial risk. This column argues that both the integrity and the legitimacy of macroprudential policy, or ‘macropru’, depends on political risk being included with other risk factors. Yet it...
Opinion Pieces
Jun 2016
Balázs Csullag, Jon Danielsson and Robert Macrae
Investor demand for bonds is very high. This column argues that this is surprising because under almost any likely inflation scenario, including central banks merely hitting their target inflation rates, bondholders suffer large losses. The...
Opinion Pieces
Jun 2016
Brexit creates new opportunities and new risks for the British and EU financial markets. Both could benefit, but a more likely outcome is a fall in the quality of financial regulations, more inefficiency, more protectionism, and more systemic risk.
Opinion Pieces
Jun 2016
The threat to the financial system posed by cyber risk is often claimed to be systemic. This column argues against this, pointing out that almost all cyber risk is microprudential. For a cyber attack to lead to a systemic crisis, it would need to be...
Opinion Pieces
Mar 2016
Jon Danielsson and Andreas Tsanakas
Macroprudential policy has become increasingly popular in the aftermath of the Global Crisis, but it remains controversial. This column argues that vigorous disagreement is both inevitable and healthy, reflecting differing fundamental views of how...
Discussion Papers
Mar 2016
DP 58
The selection of upper order statistics in tail estimation is notoriously difficult. Most methods are based on asymptotic arguments, like minimizing the asymptotic mse, that do not perform well in finite samples. Here we advance a data driven method...
Discussion Papers
Feb 2016
DP 57
We study the effects of volatility on the probability of financial crises by constructing a cross-country database spanning 211 years. We find that volatility is not a significant predictor of crises whereas unexpected high and low volatilities are...
Opinion Pieces
Oct 2015
There has always been conflict between macro- and microeconomic regulation. Microeconomic policy reigns supreme during good times, and macro during bad. This column explains that while the macro and micro objectives have always been present in...
Opinion Pieces
Oct 2015
Does low volatility in financial markets mean that another financial crisis is more likely? And should we be worried when everything is OK? This column presents the first empirical results that find a strong validation of Minsky's hypothesis...

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