Bill Ziemba

W. T. Ziemba is Alumni Professor of Financial Modeling and Stochastic Optimization (Emeritus), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, and Visiting Professor University of Manchester, and Sabanci Univearsity, Turkey, and Distinguished Visiting Research Associate, Systemic Risk Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Publications

Discussion Papers
Aug 2017
DP 72
Sebastien Lleo and Bill Ziemba
Predicting stock market crashes is a focus of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Several prediction models have been developed, mostly for use on mature fi nancial markets. In this paper, we investigate whether traditional crash...
Discussion Papers
Feb 2017
DP 64
Steven D. Moffitt and Bill Ziemba
The Canadian 6/49 Lotto©, despite its unusual payout structure, is one of the few government sponsored lotteries that has the potential for a favourable strategy we call "buying the pot". By "buying the pot" we mean that a...
Discussion Papers
Jan 2016
DP 52
The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Strategy maximizes the expected utility of final wealth with a Bernoulli logarithmic utility function. In 1956 Kelly showed that static expected log maximization yields the maximum asymptotic long run growth. Good...
Special Papers
Aug 2015
SP 8
Sebastien Lleo and Bill Ziemba
Financial disasters to hedge funds, bank trading departments and individual speculative traders and investors seem to always occur because of non-diversification in all possible scenarios, being overbet and being hit by a bad scenario. Black swans...
Discussion Papers
Sep 2014
DP 21
Sebastien Lleo and Bill Ziemba
We provide a historical perspective focusing on Ziemba's experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD) starting from when he first used it in Japan in 1988 through to the present in 2014. The model has...
Discussion Papers
Aug 2014
DP 20
Albert N. Shiryaev, Mikhail N. Zhitlukhin and Bill Ziemba
We study the land and stock markets in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. While the Nikkei stock average in the late 1980s and its -48% crash in 1990 is generally recognized as a financial market bubble, a bigger bubble and crash was in the land market....
Discussion Papers
Aug 2014
DP 18
Sebastien Lleo and Bill Ziemba
In this paper, we extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main respects. First, we relate explicitly crash prediction measures and asset pricing models. Second, we present a simple, effective statistical significance test for crash...
Discussion Papers
Jul 2014
DP 15
Leonard C. MacLean, Yonggan Zhao and Bill Ziemba
The optimal capital growth strategy or Kelly strategy, has many desirable properties such as maximizing the asympotic long run growth of capital. However, it has considerable short run risk since the utility is logarithmic, with essentially zero...
Special Papers
May 2014
SP 2
Sebastien Lleo and Bill Ziemba
What makes futures hedge funds fail? The common ingredient is over betting and not being diversified in some bad scenarios that can lead to disaster. Once troubles arise, it is difficult to take the necessary actions that eliminate the problem....
Discussion Papers
Nov 2013
DP 5
A. N. Shiryaev, M. V. Zhitlukhin and Bill Ziemba
In this paper, the authors apply a continuous time stochastic process model developed by Shiryaev and Zhutlukhin for optimal stopping of random price processes that appear to be bubbles. By a bubble we mean the rising price is largely based on the...